Mashings and ramblings of a nerd
Baseball
Will Jose Bautista Repeat Last Season’s Success??
Feb 19th
13 HRs to 54 HRs. 40 RBIs to 124 RBIs. Only 233 more ABs. This jump in Jose Bautista’s production equates into a 5 year $56 million contract that was recently agreed upon by the Blue Jay and Bautista. The real question here is will Bautista have the same success this season, come back to earth, or will end up with a glaring Brady Anderson type single season. Obviously, I’m not implying anything about Baustista’s career season last year, just stating how it could turn out if he hits on average 15 HRs a season, then jumps to 50, then back to 15. Several factors could have played a role in his explosion of a season.
Last season was the first season the he was truly an every day player that played in 161 out of 162 games. He made a majority of his starts in right field, but had 40 some odd starts at third base, where it appears he’ll most likely be playing this season. It finally appears that he’s found a home with the Blue Jays as made evident by the huge contract. Back in 2004, he played for four different teams (Royals, Devil Rays, Orioles and finally the Pirates by way of the Mets), in a single season. He found some inconsistent playing time with Pittsburgh for parts of five seasons, and eventually being traded to the Jays for Robinson Diaz.
Will he have the same sort of power numbers this year? I personally think he will not. He’s going to come back to earth and have something closer to what his normal season should be. I’ll get to some stat projections a little bit later. Is getting out of Pittsburgh that big of thing for player? Baustista’s numbers have drastically improved since leaving PNC Park and started playing in the Rogers Centre. The other thing to note and mention here was his change in hitting coaches from the Pirates to the Blue Jays.
Gene Tenace was the hitting coach for the Jays while the team was managed by Cito Gaston. He’s got the “grip it and rip it” approach to hitting and being a much more aggressive hitter instead of working counts. He also preaches to hitters that batting is a more mental than physical. Both Adam Lind and Vernon Wells have spoken praises to this approach of hitting with Tenace as coach.
The other interesting stat with this approach of hitting and Bautista specifically, is how much his rate of strikeout went down. While in Pittsburgh he struck out one out of every 4.1 ABs. Since joining the Blue Jays that rate is now one in every 4.4 ABs, but last season where Tenace was the coach the entire season under Cito Gaston it dropped to one K for every 4.9 ABs. It should also be noted that his walk rate has gone up since joining the Jays.
Unfortunately, last season was Tenace’s last as coach as he decided to retire. Dwayne Murphy has replaced him under new coach John Farrell, so it’s hard to say if this will affect the players or not. Murphy coached first while Tenace was the batting coach, so it’s possible that he could pickup the same coaching strategy as Tenace.
Bautista should still have a good season, but he’ll come back down to earth a little bit after last season’s career year. I’m guessing he’ll be somewhere in the neighborhood of batting .250ish with 35 HRs, and 110 RBIs. With the departure of Vernon Wells, Bautista along with Adam Lind and Travis Snider will have to pick up the pace as they’re the “big boppers” now.
2011 Cubs Bench Outlook
Feb 9th
Today we’ll be reviewing what options the Cubs have to fill out the remaining spots left on their bench. As I indicated in the startling lineup entry, Tyler Colvin and Jeff Baker will part of platoons, so they already have two of the five spots spoken for. There will only be five spots due to the 12 pitchers on staff and eight spots occupied by the starting lineup on opening day. Colvin will be getting plenty of playing time this season at all three positions in the OF and potentially first base. I would imagine he’ll get some action at the one bag this spring. He could possibly be a first basemen next year full time if Brett Jackson is ready to take over in the outfield with the contract of Fukudome expiring at the end of this season..
One spot will given to a backup catcher. Even though Welington Castillo is ready as he batted .300 with a home run in his September call-up, I’d still be inclined to give the spot to light hitting Koyie Hill. I will say though it’s before too long that Castillo will be ready for everyday play, so he might be involved in a trade down the road, or overtake Hill as the backup.
Hill handles the pitching staff and calls an amazing game. He had a down year throwing out base runners last season (18% catch rate) compared to the previous year (40% catch rate), but I like him as a backup yet. He’s never stuck with a team for very long prior finding a home with the Cubs, so I’m happy to see him stick here for a while. After the 2007 season, he accidentally cut off or severely severed all of the fingers on this throwing hand. He had them surgically repaired so he could still grip a baseball after the accident. It’s said they’ve fixed his hand so it grips a baseball perfectly. “We can rebuild him. We have the technology. We can make him better than he was. Better…stronger…faster.” He’s a great backup to have on the team, and he could easily fall into coaching after his playing days are over. In fact, he almost gave up during the rehab of his hand, and asked if there was a coaching position available on the team. Freshly claimed off waivers, Max Ramirez will factor into the final decision, but unless both Castillo and Hill have horrible spring or become injured, Ramirez will find himself fourth in the depth chart and probably fighting for playing time at AAA.
That give us one more infielder and outfielder on bench. The backup infielder position is up for grabs between youngster Darwin Barney, who has an awesome baseball name if I might add, and former Cub and veteran Augie Ojeda. Both Barney and Ojeda can play second and short. With Jeff Baker a natural 2B, who can also play 3rd and 1st, we’re going to focus more on backup to Castro at short. Barney has been playing short for the majority of his minor league career thus far. Ojeda was on the Cubs roster back in the early 2000′s as backup infielder. I think Barney’s offensive upside will be a better fit than the light hitting Ojeda. Barney is another ideal person to hit 2nd or 8th in the lineup depending on the matchup. He doesn’t have a lot power, but he hit for a higher average doesn’t strike out much (only 197 in almost 1700 minor league at bats), he’s be a good candidate for a pinch hit when you need somebody to make contact.
This leaves us with the fifth outfielder. The main options in camp will include Jim Adduci, Brad Synder, Reed Johnson, and Luis Montanez. Top Prospect Brett Jackson is invited to camp, but with a log jam already stopping Tyler Colvin from having consistent playing time, I’d look for Brett Jackson make the team next season with Fukudome’s contract expiring after this season.
Reed Johnson was backup OF during the 2008-2009 seasons. His hustle on the field made him become a fan favorite in Chicago. He was grateful the team gave him a shot after being released by the Blue Jays in the spring of 2008. Since he made that fantastic catch versus the Nationals that literally wow’d Kerry Wood, my father-in-law has referred to him as “Speedy”. He plays fantastic defense but doesn’t possess a killer arm by any means. Him making the play late in the game is more important anyway. I was very happy to see Johnson sign a Minor League contract a few weeks ago wit the Cubs, as he was a favorite of mine with his “Charlie Hustle” attitude. I think he’s got the upper edge at the moment, if he can stay healthy. He’s perfect as a late inning defensive replacement or for a pinch hit against a lefty. He’s a career .300 hitter vs. LHP, so that’s another plus.
Synder has been putting some some decent power numbers in the minors (25 HRs 106 RBI .308/.381/.568), but he’s not all that much of a defensive specialist per se. He plays good defense, predominately in right field, but could easily play left as well and possess a little bit of speed. He stole 19 bases last year at AAA. I think he’s probably got a shot to be the first one called up if injuries occur now that Sam Fuld was traded to the Rays, but I don’t think he’s what the teams needs on the bench defensively.
Jim Adduci is a plus defender as he didn’t commit an error at all last season in 114 games across all three positions. He doesn’t hit for a lot of power, but possess above average speed. Keep an eye on this guy, he could easily sneak in this year as the fifth OF. He was acquired as a replacement for an injured player in 2006 in a Todd Wellemeyer trade with the Marlins. His father was a Major League player for four season with the Cardinals, Brewers and Phillies. He had a very good spring in limited action, so it’s safe to say he’s got a real shot at making the active roster this season.
Former Cub first round pick in 2000, Lou Montanez is back with the Cubs fighting for that fifth spot as well. He hasn’t had much success at the Major League level, and I don’t envision him making the roster. The younger players the Cubs have in the minors are just better (Synder, Adduci and Jackson). I’m not sure he’ll even wind up on the AAA squad this season due to this fact. If Johnson get’s the fifth spot, Synder, Adduci and Jackson could easily start in AAA now that Jason Dubois retired from playing and started coach position in within the organization.
I’ll also mention Fernando Perez, who was also acquired in the Matt Garza Trade. He’s fine as backup outfielder, but I like Johnson and Adduci more.
All of this boils down to two backup OF, two backup IF and one backup catcher and here are the players that will make the final cut:
OF: Tyler Colvin
OF: Reed Johnson
IF: Jeff Baker
IF: Darwin Barney
C: Koyie Hill
This will leave them a little light in infield depth, but Colvin could play first in a pinch. Barney will be able to play 2nd, SS and 3rd. Baker can play 2nd, 3rd, and 1st, so between those two, the team should be able to field a competitive team on a daily basis.
I think Johnson has the spot to lose based of his experience and defense he can bring to the table. With that said, Adduci could easily sneak in should the Cubs not feel Johnson is healthy enough to play the full season or has a poor spring. Adduci will still only be 25 when the season starts, so he could wind up a lot like Tyler Colvin in regards to when he gets his chance to play with the big league team, just one year behind in terms of years.
2011 Cubs Starting Lineup Outlook
Feb 8th
In today’s installment of the building of the Cubs 25 man roster, I’m going to examine their starting lineup. I was going to break apart infielders and outfielders, but with the starting eight in the field being set, it would make a better entry if I talked about the bench by itself. Since we all know who is going to start out on the field opening day for the Cubs, barring a trade/release of some sort, we’ll focus on the batting order.
The only major change in their line up this season from last was the departures of Derrek Lee and Ryan Theriot. Blake DeWitt was acquired in the trade of Ted Lilly and Theriot and Carlos Pena signed a one year contract to play first base in place of Derrek Lee.
The outfield will remained unchanged from last year consisting of Alfonso Soriano in left, Marlon Byrd in center, and Kosuke Fukudome/Tyler Colvin in right. Fukudome has fallen out of favor in Chicago for not living up to his contract. With both Colvin and Fukudome batting left, there isn’t an easy platoon to use so players both get at-bats. Prior to the signing of Pena, Colvin was slated to play first. Colvin would have received Rookie of the Year votes had it not been for an amazing season in the NL for rookies. Soriano has been moved down in the lineup and will often be the victim of a defensive replacement late in the game. Sure he’s got a good arm, but his fielding is still way below average. Byrd, the only Cub All-Star last season, is the only sure fire guy to be an everyday player. He plays the game the right way giving 110% on every ball. If he hits a lazy popup, or grounder, by God, he’s tearing out of the batters box like there’s no tomorrow.
The infield will feature new player, Carlos Pena, at first base to replace Derrek Lee. I’ll admit I’m not a fan of this signing because there were several as good or better options than Pena for less money. Side Note: Russell Branyan still is looking for a job. I thought Lance Berkman would have been a fine first basemen for the Cubs for one season. He’ll put up good numbers in Wrigley while putting up better than average defense. He going to play right field for the Cardinals for $2 million less than Pena. His switch hitting would be something desired in the line up too.
Second base will feature the platoon of Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker. Baker hits left handed pitching very well, and will probably lead off in that scenario, while DeWitt bats left handed and will hit right handed pitching a lot better than Baker does. I’m fine with this platoon. DeWitt will get a majority of the ABs at second while Baker will fill in against a left-handed pitcher. On the flipside Baker is turning into a super-utility player. He can play 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and RF. He’s an asset to the team as far as I’m concerned.
Shortshop. Obviously youngster Starlin Castro is the Cubs shortstop for many years to come. He had a lot of errors last season, but he also made lots of plays that a lot of players won’t make. He’s ideally a second hitter in the lineup. He hits for average, possesses great speed, and has some pop in his bad. He could pave the way for the three, four and five hitters in the lineup. He’s going to play everyday for the most part this season. I’d look to him to have another great year.
Third base will still be manned by Aramis Ramirez for at least one more season. He exercised his team option after a injury filled sub-par season. He’s looking to bounce back, and I’m sure he will. With Josh Vitters in the system, his days are numbered as long as Vitters progresses his way through the minors.
Geovany Soto will still be calling games behind the plate. He did have shoulder surgery at the end of last season, so look to that to be a possible factor early on in the season. Reports indicate now that he’ll be 100% by spring training. He recovered well last season from his sophomore slump by coming into camp with a significant amount of weight loss. Even if his power numbers were down last year, his on-base percentage lead the team and his average was high. I’ll look for this to continue into this season.
The biggest questions in the batting order is who’s going to lead off, and who’s going to step into Derrek Lee’s spot?
Fukudome lead off last year due to his fairly high OBP, but that could change if he struggles. Tyler Colvin lead off last season some, but by hitting 20 HRs last season, he needs to be in the middle to back of the lineup, not leading off. Based on this, I’d construct the batting lineup as such:
RHP:
1. Kosuke Fukudome
2. Starlin Castro
3. Aramis Ramirez
4. Carlos Pena
5. Marlon Byrd
6. Geovany Soto
7. Alfonso Soriano
8. Blake Dewitt
9. Pitcher’s Spot
The natural thing is to put Ramirez in the third spot as he’s the most dangerous hitter. He’s not been known to carry a team offensively like Derrek Lee did the season he came in 3rd in the MVP voting; however he’s been a very good compliment to Lee in the past seven seasons. This season it will have a be a combonation ARam, Pena, and Byrd to drive a brunt of the runs this season. It’s possible all three of these batters could end up near 100 RBIs this season. They won’t have that one clutch hitter has they’ve had in the past, but hopefully with a better season from Pena, it will be a more consistent season from the hitters.
LHP:
1. Jeff Baker
2. Starlin Castro
3. Aramis Ramirez
4. Marlon Byrd
5. Carlos Pena
6. Alfonso Soriano
7. Geovany Soto
8. Tyler Colvin/Kosuke Fukudome
9. Pitcher’s Spot
Configuring a lineup vs. LHP is much harder to complete as the majority of the Cubs hitters hit lefties very well, including Soriano! That why I gave him the bump up and dropped Soto, even if he hits LHP better. I moved down Pena, because he doesn’t hit left handers the best, while Byrd hit’s them extremely well, and to keep Colvin/Fukdome and himself a few batters apart in the lineup as Baker destroys LHP, and will probably get a good numbers of the starts at second when the starting pitcher is left handed.
2011 Cubs Bullpen Outlook
Feb 7th
In part two of my five-part series on constructed the 25 man roster for the Cubs this season, I’ll take a look at the possible bullpen configurations working towards my bullpen. At the beginning of the season lots of teams will carry 12 pitchers on their staff. Sometimes you can get away with 11 for the first few weeks until you need that fifth starter. In my previous entry, I established who I wanted in the rotation, so we’ll assume they’re going to carry seven relievers to start the season. We’ll assume the team will start with 12 pitchers and 13 hitters.
We know Carlos Marmol is going to close with Sean Marshall and Kerry Wood getting the ball to Marmol. With the acquisition of Matt Garza, Andrew Cashner can now help be a full time setup pitcher. Marmol and Marshall were arguably one of the better setup duos in baseball last season. Adding Kerry Wood gives them a veteran team leader both on the field and in the clubhouse, could make things even better. After being traded to the Yankees to be a set up man, he pitched extremely well in the final months of the season. There’s definitely a little bit of gas left in the tank for Wood. As I mentioned in my previous post, I like Cashner setting up, at least for this season. The Cubs have good options for the rotation and a lot of depth, so his talents can help make a more dominating bullpen.
The only non-roster invitee hoping for a spot in the bullpen is Angel Guzman. He fell off the 40 man roster last season after he was place on the 60 day disabled list while recovering from shoulder surgery. He cleared waivers and signed a minor league contract. Prior to his surgery, he had figured out pitching out of the ‘pen instead of starting. Guzman was suppose to be the “end all be all” to starting pitchers for the Cubs. but injuries have derailed those hopes (this has been a common theme for the Cubs as you know). He’s going to have to earn a spot back on the 40 man roster. If Angel Guzman has a good spring, I’d look to him to get the last spot in the bullpen. He’s got experience and had a good season pitching in the pen two years ago. It’s hard to say how well he’ll pitch coming off his surgery. It’s very possible that he’ll need some more work to get back to the major league level again. It’s a path the Cubs can take if needed.
There was a slew of young pitchers in an out of the bullpen last year due to injuries. The following pitchers had some experience in the bullpen last year: Mitch Atkins, Brian Schlitter, Jeff Samardzija, Jeff Gray, Esmailin Caridad , Casey Coleman, Scott Maine, Thomas Diamond, Jeff Stevens, Marcos Mateo, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Andrew Cashner, James Russell, Sean Marshall, and Carlos Marmol. Also to note: Bob Howry and Tom Gorzelanny threw last season, but are no loner part of the organization due to a release and a trade respectively. If a team is carrying 12 pitchers on their staff, at leaves seven pitchers in the pen. With 16 pitchers having thrown in the pen last year still in the Cubs organization, they’re going to have to send a good chunk back to the minors or find new homes. The good news is a large number of these players are young and have options left. Some of the pitchers like Thomas Diamond, Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg are starting to that age where they’re getting to old be prospects with promising futures.
Let’s say the Cubs are going to carry 12 pitchers to start the season, so they can spread out the pitching while pitchers get their arms stronger. Five of those spots will be occupied by the starting rotation, although one could argue that fifth starter probably won’t be needed for the first couple weeks of the season. I consider five of the seven spots locked. Marmol, Wood, Marshall, and Cashner in the back end of the bullpen. The other spot is long relief most likely occupied by Carlos Silva as he is going to miss out on the rotation against Samardzija.
Realistically, that gives us two spots for more then 10 people. I would think John Grabow has an upper hand as he’s still under contract for this season and wants to rebound from his injury filled season last year. I saw Scott Maine throw a few times at the end of last season, and I must say I was impressed how well he threw. He looked very natural and confident on the mound. I would really like him to be on the roster at the end of spring, but having both Marshall and Grabow already, he could be finding himself one lefty too many.
Justin Berg had the most appearances by the relievers outside of the main three (Marmol, Marshall and Cashner). I like this kid quite a bit, but he’s by no means overpowering and doesn’t strike out many batters. He’s had some decent success, but nothing that guarantees him a spot. He pitched well last season in his couple of stints with the team, but a few bad games made this stats worse than what they appear to be. In three bad outings last season, he gave up 13 earned runs in 3.1 innings. The rest of the season consisted of 36.2 innings while giving up only 10 earned runs. He could be a good middle reliever and a change of pace from the hard throwing righties there with him.
Marcos Mateo will probably factor into the pen at some point this year, but he probably needs a bit more polishing this season at AAA. Jeff Stevens started off the season in May really well, but he started walking too many and giving up too many runs. Esmailin Caridad started off the season on the Cubs roster, but ran into injuries and wound up on the 60 day DL. Thomas Diamond has started more in his professional career that relieved, so look for him to focus there again. Coleman and Russell will be vying for a starting job in the rotation, if they fail to do so, they’ll probably continue to start at AAA.
The problem albeit a good one, is the Cubs have too many pitchers capable of doing more than an adequate job in the pen. With the rotation most likely consisting of all right-handed pitchers, having three left-handed might not be a horrible idea. It could give some managers some second thoughts about who to put in the lineup knowing there are that many lefties in the pen waiting for their hitters. It think the first pitchers that would be called up would be Justin Berg and Marcos Mateo.
The one player I want to mention that won’t start the season on the active roster, but could easily find is way on the team at some point this season is Kyle Smit. He was acquired in the Ted Lilly/Ryan Theriot trade with the Dodgers at the trade deadline this past season. After making a switch from starting to relieving, he’s been fantastic. He was dominating this fall in the Arizona Fall League. If that continues this season, he could be on the active roster in no time.
CL: Carlos Marmol
RP: Sean Marshall
RP: Kerry Wood
RP: Andrew Cashner
RP: John Grabow
RP: Scott Maine
RP: Carlos Silva
Based on what I saw last season as a September call-up, I want Scott Maine in the bullpen to start the season. It’s very possible he and Angel Guzman could be flip-flopped if Guzman comes back strong and healthy enough. Check back tomorrow when I profile the players making up the starters on the field.
2011 Cubs Rotation Outlook
Feb 6th
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting for work only one week from today. The Cubs have a lot of questions that need to be answered going to this season:
Can Mike Quade continue his success this season like had at the end of last season as an interm-manager?
Will players play up to their salaries (Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano, I’m loooking at you)?
Will Pena rebound hitting in Wrigley and with the help of Rudy Jaramillo?
How will the Cubs handle a rotation with all right-handed pitchers and what other options do they have?
I will be start a five-part series this week examining how I would personally build the final 25 man roster for the Cubs. These parts will include: Rotation, Bullpen, Infield, Outfield, Bench, and Minor League outlook. In my first part of the series, I’m looking at the rotation and how it should be put together to start the season.
The following starting pitchers were invited to spring training as non-roster invitees: Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer. These two pitchers are back of the rotation pitchers, which happens to be place where the biggest unanswered questions reside.
The way I see it, three of the five spots are spoken for entirely, with a fourth being a player’s to lose. The opening day starter will be newly acquired Matt Garza followed by Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano. I like Zambrano down lower in the rotation to take of any sort of pressure off of him. He ended the season strong when there was nothing left to gain for the season. Hopefully, being lower in the rotation will help him keep that sort of mentality.
The fourth spot is Randy Wells to lose. He’s had some pretty good success on the mound after converting from catcher. He thinks he tried to jump to high too fast season, which lead to a poor sophomore campaign. He’s also had some pretty poor run support in his short career.
That leaves the following hurlers to fill the final spot: Carlos Silva, Jeff Samardzija, James Russell, Casey Coleman, Braden Looper, and Todd Wellemeyer.
Carlos Silva was involved in a “I’ll take your junk if you take my junk” trade with the Mariners last season, and it turned into ‘gold’ for the Cubs in comparison to what Milton Bradley has done for the M’s. If Silva doesn’t make a start this year, that trade will end up in the Cubs favor. Congrats Jim Hendry, you actually might have gotten something right for once. The change of scenery did Silva well last season by starting off the season 8-0 and an ERA in the 2′s. He slowly came down to earth and ended the season 10-6, and ended up on the DL
Jeff Samardzija is out of options and will need to make the roster, be designated for assignment, or be traded. I’m just not sure how I feel about Samardzija. He had a fantastic rookie season as a back-end bullpen pitcher in 2008. Since, he’s been up, he’s been down, he’s relieved and he’s started. Over the last two seasons, the Cubs have eaten up all his minor league options. I would have no problems with him being the fifth starter, if he’s figured out this off-season on what he’s missing. His upside is better than what Carlos Silva can bring to the table. He did pitch fairly well at the end of the season as starter going 2-1 in three starts. He had a good year at AAA going 11-3 (7-2 as a starter), but his ERA was still over 4. The Cubs could actually trade him in hopes of getting one to two young minor league players in return as well. Just figuring that’s a fifth pitcher, those stats would be more than fine. I like his chances at making the rotation.
Casey Coleman is a third generation MLB’er and found great success at the end of the season as a starter opposed to the bullpen featuring a 4-2 record with a 3.36 ERA. He’s not flashy or overpowering, but considered a finesse Greg Maddux type pitcher. That could prove to be a good change of pace in the rotation. I would imagine that he’ll begin the season in AAA as a starter and will fill in as injuries come up in the season. I like this kid a lot and I think he’s got a bright future as middle to late pitcher in the rotation.
Russell spent most of the season as the lefty reliever due to the John Grabow injury. It was a good, solid rookie campaign for him. He’s the lone left handed option for the rotation this season, so it’s planned he’ll be stretched out this spring as a starter. He’ll start the season in AAA as a starter, and will fill in as needed. I think with the number of lefties vying for bullpen spots, he’ll be an odd man out in the bullpen.
Finally, that leaves us with non-roster invitees, Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer. They both signed minor league deals, so if they don’t make the rotation, they have options at accepting a minor league assignment to add depth in case injuries occur. I don’t think either of these two pitchers will begin the season on the 25 man roster. It’s possible that Looper, with a strong spring, could find a home on a different rotation, so I’d look for him to be cut and picked up by another team if he pitches well. If he doesn’t he might be fine accepting a spot on the AAA team to build up his strength again. If this situation occurs, I’d look to him as the potential first call-up in an injury occurs in the staff. I think he’ll pitch reasonably well and find a new home by the end of spring training. Wellemeyer as originally drafted by the Cubs back in 1999. He’ll begin the season in the minors, but even in the minors, the Cubs have so many better, younger pitchers.
Andrew Cashner was originally thought to stretch out the innings this spring as a possible candidate for the rotation due to the acquisition of Kerry Wood, but with the trade of Matt Garza, I don’t think Cashner moving to the rotation even needs to be a consideration anymore. I’m aboard the Andrew Cashner train. He had two bad outings last season that ballooned his ERA where he gave up 12 earned runs in 1.1 innings. If you take out those outings, his ERA is under three. His effortless heat is something to be desired in the pen in conjunction with Wood, Marmol and Marshall, but with that said, he’s spent his short amount of time in the minors mostly as a starter, so it would be something he’s use to. With the amount of starting pitching on the roster now, his talents can help shore up one of the potentially best “end boss” bullpens in the majors.
Taking this all in, here is how I would construct the rotation:
Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Carlos Zambrano
Randy Wells
Jeff Samardzija
This leaves no left handed pitchers in the rotation, but prior to signing Ted Lilly as a free agent in 2007, There was only one season since 2000 where they had consistent LHP in the rotation for the entire season. That was in 2003 with Sean Estes, and we all know how that season ended. Rich Hill and Sean Marshall have been in and out of the rotation, but as far as a year long pitcher, Estes was about it, so I don’t think it’s necessarily as big of a deal. With Russell, Grabow, Maine and Marshall, there could be plenty of lefties coming out of the bullpen this season.
Tool of the Week: U2
Jan 29th
Author’s Note: Typically I will be running this out every Friday, but I wanted to make sure I had a photo to accompany this post, it was a day late. I’ll be on the ball more next week!
While I was at work the other day, I was taking a break to catch up on some fresh baseball news. Anybody that knows me well, will know that I’m up-to-date on my baseball news year round. When the NFL is in full swing, I’m eye deep in Winter Meeting articles. Anyway, so today, I see a series between the Marlins and Mariners that was to take place in Miami June 23-26 has now been moved to Seattle. The Marlins will remain the home team and bat second, if that matters at all. It matters about as much Carlos Zambrano threw a no-hitter vs the Astros in an “away” game in Miller Park aka “Wrigley Field North”. On the upside, the game will be played under national league rules too! Wait, because that makes it all better.
Why was it moved you ask? U2 will have a concert at Sun Life Stadium on June 29, and due to “advanced setup commitments” the Marlins can’t play there. So June 27th and 28th isn’t enough time to set up for it? Make sure that the third game in the series is an afternoon game, giving them some more hours to work. Perhaps Mr. Bono is the one to blame due to exorbitant demands artists make these days? “THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL GAMES PLAYED AT MY VENUE WITHIN 128 HOURS BEFORE I GO ON”. Now if the Marlins owned the stadium where they played it wouldn’t be an issue because they would have the jurisdiction to give the Marlins the ball so to speak, but they don’t and they got overran by Bono.
I’ll put it right out there: I don’t like U2 as a band nor do I like Bono. He’s a complete egomaniac. Egoism is one of my biggest pet peeves in the world. He won’t shut up about world peace, donating money to charity and feeding starving kids in Africa. Apparently, rumor has it even though he’s rich bastard, he’s hardly donated much of his own money. He’s moved his business funds from Ireland to Holland to avoid paying taxes in a change that HE proposed to help in foreign aid. Thumbs up buddy! Way to be a hypocrite, pet peeve number two!
Take. Off. The. Sunglasses. Is your name Corey Hart and you wear your sunglasses at night? NO! *sings* “I wear my sunglasses at night so I can so I can watch you weave then breath your story lines”. I don’t care if you say your eyes are extra sensitive to light and all the flashes from the cameras bothers them. He acts like he’s messiah to saving the world. Lighten up dude. You’re a musician, and a bad one at that. The Edge, you’re an amazing guitarist and you rock; however, U2 as a whole, suck the big one. Every time I hear “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For”, “Sunday Bloody Sunday” or “Beautiful Day” part of me dies inside because of how much I can’t stand Bono. “One” is good, but only sung by Joe Cocker; whenever the U2 version comes on, whether it be TV or a crappy radio station that I’m obviously not in control of, I’ will immediately start looking for a samurai sword to commit hari kari.
Even if this direct event isn’t directly to U2, I personally think it makes them look bad. Congratulations, Bono. You’re the inaugural winner of “Tool of the Week” on my blog. You’re probably going to be the benchmark for finding my Tools. You’re not going to save the world, sorry. I know you mean well, but I still don’t like you or your music. If you followed on my pure baseball blog (Baseball Whammy), then you remember I did this weekly there too. I’m still working out my “ground rules” so to speak. I’ll typically try to stay in the sports world, but if anybody else is deserving of such title, I won’t hesitate to give it to them. I follow mostly sports news, so I’m pretty sure more often than not, I’ll have somebody/thing related to sports winning.
How Much Drugs Cost Josh Hamilton
Jan 26th
Let’s take a second and jump into the “what could have been time machine”. In his fourth official year league last season, Josh Hamilton won the AL MVP and helped the Rangers reach the World Series for the first time ever. It’s no secret that Josh Hamilton is a special person with God-given talents.
He was the number one overall draft pick taken by the then Tampa By Devil Rays in 1999 out of high school. He put up good numbers for an 18 year old in the minors. After being drafted, he shot up as the #1 prospect in all of baseball. In 2001, injuries shortened his season to only 27 games. During this season is when his drug and alcohol abuse began to become a problem. He first entered rehab to curb his addiction. Issues continued into the 2003 season, and he eventually missed three entire seasons on the restricted list. Long story short he worked his way back to the Major Leagues by way of a Rule 5 Draft pick by the Cubs and immediately shipped to the Reds for $100,000. Yes, the Cubs could have kept him, and Soriano could have been an after thought, but I digress.
The rule with Rule 5 Draft picks is they need to remain on the teams 25 man roster, or they will be shipped back to the originating team. He had a fantastic spring with the Reds and made the team as a fourth outfielder. Yadda. Yadda. Yadda. He’s an MVP and a three time All-Star since being traded to the Rangers.
Now let’s take a look what what he could have been had it not been for this road bump in his life and his career. Here’s a quick list of special players that were drafted out of high school and the amount of time they spent in the minors (quick note: I’m only using American High School players as examples; players like Felix Hernandez and Miguel Cabrera aren’t included):
| Player | Draft Year | MLB Debut Year |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 1987 | 1989 |
| Chipper Jones | 1990 | 1993 |
| Darryl Strawberry | 1980 | 1983 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 1993 | 1994 |
| Kerry Wood | 1995 | 1998 |
| Joe Mauer | 2001 | 2004 |
Based on this small sample size, we’ll say that he would have been in the minors for three seasons, therefore making his major league debut in 2002. For the benefit of the doubt, it’s assumed he was September call-up and his stats were marginal and won’t be included. From there, we’re going to average his stats per AB his first four years in the league to get a small data sample to extrapolate across his entire career.
2007-2010 Total ABs: 1776
ABs Per HR: 19
ABs Per RBI: 5
ABs Per H: 3
ABs Per R: 6
Albert Pujols has averaged 573 ABs per season in his 10 year career thus far. He’s about as close to an ironman as you can get in regards to a power hitter. He’s missed 62 games in 10 seasons. Since we’re already in Magical Christmas Land for our “shoulda coulda woulda”, it’s assumed Josh Hamilton averaged 570 ABs per season since 2003. On average he would have had 30 HRs, 114 RBIs, 191 H, and 95 R.
Projected Career Stats from 2003-2010 (8 seasons):
| Batting Average | AB | R | H | HR | RBI |
| .335 | 4560 | 760 | 1528 | 240 | 912 |
I’m almost certain through eight seasons, he’d be well on his way to a Hall of Fame career. Be as it may, he still might be on that track. Even with his derailment in the minors, he’s still only 29; turning 30 in May. It’s possible that he could play for another 10 years assuming his body holds up.
Projected Career Stats from 2003-2020 (18 seasons):
| Batting Average | AB | R | H | HR | RBI |
| .335 | 10260 | 1638 | 3438 | 540 | 2052 |
Ok, these stats are pretty far fetched. You can’t assume he’s going to put up those numbers his entire career. He’s had a problem avoiding the injury bug in his short career. All and all based on the sheer talent this man possesses, this numbers aren’t all that completely far fetched.
Josh has averaged 444 in his first four season. Assume he plays another 8 seasons, up until he turns 37. This will give him 12 years in the Majors.
Closer to realistic career stats (2007-2018):
| Batting Average | AB | R | H | HR | RBI |
| .333 | 5328 | 1332 | 1776 | 276 | 1068 |
While those aren’t probably Hall of Fame type numbers, he’s going to leave the game a legend.
Examining Cubs Past Top Draft Picks
Jan 25th
When I was browsing the Cubs official website site today, I found a listing of their draft picks from 2000 to 2010. Let’s take a look at the first rounds picks they made in those years, and any other interesting tidbits in the other rounds I came across.
2000: Luis Montanez – SS. He’s still in the minor leagues. He went from the Cubs to the Orioles in 2007. He’s been up and down a few times with the Orioles, but have never stuck He’s recently a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training again with the Cubs. I don’t see him anything besides an injury backup in the minors. Even then, I’d rather have them call up one of the kids anyway.
Dontrelle Willis was also drafted in the 8th round that year and we all know how well it worked out. Bad at first when he wins 20 games, but then he just falls of the face of the earth when he can’t throw a strike any more due to “anxiety issues”.
2001: Mark Prior – P. Most people know his story. Was drafted out of college, second overall, and was in the majors in the 2002 seasonwit pretty good success. In 2003, he’s an integral part of their playoff run to be thwarted by eventual World Series winning Marlins in the NLCS. BOOM! Injuries. He’s never the same. He’s been with the Padres and Rangers trying to mount a comeback and even pitched some independent ball last season. He’s signed a minor league contract with the Yankees this offseason, the team he was originally drafted by in 1998.
2002: Interestingly enough, they had four first round picks that year. How many of them are still playing? Zero.
Luke Hagerty – P. Had Tommy John surgery in 2003. He never made it higher than A+ ball. He was released and played some independent ball for a few seasons but not any more than a few games. From what I found trolling Facebook (obviously) he’s a trainer / baseball specialist with a company called X2Baseball in Arizona.
Matt Clanton – P. Only four innings of minor league experience due to injuries. He blames the Cubs for ruining his career and his life. As quoted from 2008 article (here): “I get drafted in the first round and things are supposed to be great, right? No way, man. Jim Hendry and his staff made my life a living hell for three years.” Yikes!
Bobby Brownlie – P. Outside of Mark Prior, this was one of the first guys I started hearing quite a bit about him around the grapevine. He spent time in the minors over seven seasons with the Cubs, Indians, and Nationals. He also had a small stint in an independent league. This past summer he went back to his alma-mater, Rutgers, to be part of their baseball coaching staff.
Chadd Blasko – P. He started off really good in the minors putting up good numbers, but that injury bug derailed those plans. He missed two complete seasons, and never pitched effectively again, after a short stint in the Orioles organization. The most recent information I can find, is that he went back to Purdue, his alma-mater, to help coach in 2008.
This was the same year that one of my all-time favorite names in baseball was drafted. His name you ask? Rocky Cherry. Was in the Majors for the Cubs the same year as Felix Pie. Before a game they were standing next to each other. Cherry Pie. Last, I saw he was in the Orioles organization (seriously the Cubs work the O’s so much!)
2003: Ryan Harvey – OF. He’s still going strong for the Rockies AA team after his 8th season as a minor leaguer.
Some joker of a dude name Tim Lincecum was draft this year and chose not to sign. He probably won’t amount to anything anyway.
Matt LaPorta, of the Cleveland Indians was drafted by the Cubs this year, but was not signed. He was later drafted by the Brewers and was a former top Prospect involved in the C.C. Sabathia that sent him to Milwaukee.
0-2 on future top players!
2004: The Cubs didn’t actually have a 1st round draft pick this season.
2005: Mark Pawelek – P. He never really got higher than A ball, and eventually released. He was picked up by the Reds in 2009, but last pitched in 2010 in an independent league.
2006: Tyler Colvin – OF. Currently with the Major League team. He had a great rookie campaign; he would have be involved in more Rookie of the Year talks, but the National League was stacked with good rookies last year.
2007: Josh Vitters – 3B. Currently on the AA roster. Still to be considered one of their top prospects and the current heir to Aramis Ramirez’s throne when he leaves the team. He’s still working on things, but he’s still young (21).
Andrew Cashner was originally drafted this year, but he chose not to sign, which brings me to…
2008: Andrew Cashner – P. Currently with the Major League team. With the exception of two bad outings, Cashner had a fantastic year out of the bullpen helping Sean Marshall setup. This year he’s got Kerry Wood helping him out. Prior to the Matt Garza trade, there was talk about moving him to the rotation. I like this kid a lot. He’s got heat, and it seems pretty effortless from him.
2009: Brett Jackson – OF. Currently on the AA roster. He’s on a fast-track to the majors; he just needs some room to play. He was part of the Futures team this past season. If his power fully develops he could be a 5-tool player. There’s still a lot excitement with him. I’m sure he’ll replace Marlon Byrd in a few seasons, unless Colvin fully converts to a first basemen.
2010: Hayden Simpson – P. He doesn’t have any MiLB experience as of yet. He was pretty surprising first round pick due to the fact he was projected to be a 6th round pick. Last time Tim Wilkins did this, he grabbed a kid named Tyler Colvin, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt right now. He put up good numbers in two seasons with Southern Arkansas.
