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Posts tagged John Grabow
2011 Cubs Bullpen Outlook
Feb 7th
In part two of my five-part series on constructed the 25 man roster for the Cubs this season, I’ll take a look at the possible bullpen configurations working towards my bullpen. At the beginning of the season lots of teams will carry 12 pitchers on their staff. Sometimes you can get away with 11 for the first few weeks until you need that fifth starter. In my previous entry, I established who I wanted in the rotation, so we’ll assume they’re going to carry seven relievers to start the season. We’ll assume the team will start with 12 pitchers and 13 hitters.
We know Carlos Marmol is going to close with Sean Marshall and Kerry Wood getting the ball to Marmol. With the acquisition of Matt Garza, Andrew Cashner can now help be a full time setup pitcher. Marmol and Marshall were arguably one of the better setup duos in baseball last season. Adding Kerry Wood gives them a veteran team leader both on the field and in the clubhouse, could make things even better. After being traded to the Yankees to be a set up man, he pitched extremely well in the final months of the season. There’s definitely a little bit of gas left in the tank for Wood. As I mentioned in my previous post, I like Cashner setting up, at least for this season. The Cubs have good options for the rotation and a lot of depth, so his talents can help make a more dominating bullpen.
The only non-roster invitee hoping for a spot in the bullpen is Angel Guzman. He fell off the 40 man roster last season after he was place on the 60 day disabled list while recovering from shoulder surgery. He cleared waivers and signed a minor league contract. Prior to his surgery, he had figured out pitching out of the ‘pen instead of starting. Guzman was suppose to be the “end all be all” to starting pitchers for the Cubs. but injuries have derailed those hopes (this has been a common theme for the Cubs as you know). He’s going to have to earn a spot back on the 40 man roster. If Angel Guzman has a good spring, I’d look to him to get the last spot in the bullpen. He’s got experience and had a good season pitching in the pen two years ago. It’s hard to say how well he’ll pitch coming off his surgery. It’s very possible that he’ll need some more work to get back to the major league level again. It’s a path the Cubs can take if needed.
There was a slew of young pitchers in an out of the bullpen last year due to injuries. The following pitchers had some experience in the bullpen last year: Mitch Atkins, Brian Schlitter, Jeff Samardzija, Jeff Gray, Esmailin Caridad , Casey Coleman, Scott Maine, Thomas Diamond, Jeff Stevens, Marcos Mateo, John Grabow, Justin Berg, Andrew Cashner, James Russell, Sean Marshall, and Carlos Marmol. Also to note: Bob Howry and Tom Gorzelanny threw last season, but are no loner part of the organization due to a release and a trade respectively. If a team is carrying 12 pitchers on their staff, at leaves seven pitchers in the pen. With 16 pitchers having thrown in the pen last year still in the Cubs organization, they’re going to have to send a good chunk back to the minors or find new homes. The good news is a large number of these players are young and have options left. Some of the pitchers like Thomas Diamond, Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg are starting to that age where they’re getting to old be prospects with promising futures.
Let’s say the Cubs are going to carry 12 pitchers to start the season, so they can spread out the pitching while pitchers get their arms stronger. Five of those spots will be occupied by the starting rotation, although one could argue that fifth starter probably won’t be needed for the first couple weeks of the season. I consider five of the seven spots locked. Marmol, Wood, Marshall, and Cashner in the back end of the bullpen. The other spot is long relief most likely occupied by Carlos Silva as he is going to miss out on the rotation against Samardzija.
Realistically, that gives us two spots for more then 10 people. I would think John Grabow has an upper hand as he’s still under contract for this season and wants to rebound from his injury filled season last year. I saw Scott Maine throw a few times at the end of last season, and I must say I was impressed how well he threw. He looked very natural and confident on the mound. I would really like him to be on the roster at the end of spring, but having both Marshall and Grabow already, he could be finding himself one lefty too many.
Justin Berg had the most appearances by the relievers outside of the main three (Marmol, Marshall and Cashner). I like this kid quite a bit, but he’s by no means overpowering and doesn’t strike out many batters. He’s had some decent success, but nothing that guarantees him a spot. He pitched well last season in his couple of stints with the team, but a few bad games made this stats worse than what they appear to be. In three bad outings last season, he gave up 13 earned runs in 3.1 innings. The rest of the season consisted of 36.2 innings while giving up only 10 earned runs. He could be a good middle reliever and a change of pace from the hard throwing righties there with him.
Marcos Mateo will probably factor into the pen at some point this year, but he probably needs a bit more polishing this season at AAA. Jeff Stevens started off the season in May really well, but he started walking too many and giving up too many runs. Esmailin Caridad started off the season on the Cubs roster, but ran into injuries and wound up on the 60 day DL. Thomas Diamond has started more in his professional career that relieved, so look for him to focus there again. Coleman and Russell will be vying for a starting job in the rotation, if they fail to do so, they’ll probably continue to start at AAA.
The problem albeit a good one, is the Cubs have too many pitchers capable of doing more than an adequate job in the pen. With the rotation most likely consisting of all right-handed pitchers, having three left-handed might not be a horrible idea. It could give some managers some second thoughts about who to put in the lineup knowing there are that many lefties in the pen waiting for their hitters. It think the first pitchers that would be called up would be Justin Berg and Marcos Mateo.
The one player I want to mention that won’t start the season on the active roster, but could easily find is way on the team at some point this season is Kyle Smit. He was acquired in the Ted Lilly/Ryan Theriot trade with the Dodgers at the trade deadline this past season. After making a switch from starting to relieving, he’s been fantastic. He was dominating this fall in the Arizona Fall League. If that continues this season, he could be on the active roster in no time.
CL: Carlos Marmol
RP: Sean Marshall
RP: Kerry Wood
RP: Andrew Cashner
RP: John Grabow
RP: Scott Maine
RP: Carlos Silva
Based on what I saw last season as a September call-up, I want Scott Maine in the bullpen to start the season. It’s very possible he and Angel Guzman could be flip-flopped if Guzman comes back strong and healthy enough. Check back tomorrow when I profile the players making up the starters on the field.
2011 Cubs Rotation Outlook
Feb 6th
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting for work only one week from today. The Cubs have a lot of questions that need to be answered going to this season:
Can Mike Quade continue his success this season like had at the end of last season as an interm-manager?
Will players play up to their salaries (Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano, I’m loooking at you)?
Will Pena rebound hitting in Wrigley and with the help of Rudy Jaramillo?
How will the Cubs handle a rotation with all right-handed pitchers and what other options do they have?
I will be start a five-part series this week examining how I would personally build the final 25 man roster for the Cubs. These parts will include: Rotation, Bullpen, Infield, Outfield, Bench, and Minor League outlook. In my first part of the series, I’m looking at the rotation and how it should be put together to start the season.
The following starting pitchers were invited to spring training as non-roster invitees: Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer. These two pitchers are back of the rotation pitchers, which happens to be place where the biggest unanswered questions reside.
The way I see it, three of the five spots are spoken for entirely, with a fourth being a player’s to lose. The opening day starter will be newly acquired Matt Garza followed by Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano. I like Zambrano down lower in the rotation to take of any sort of pressure off of him. He ended the season strong when there was nothing left to gain for the season. Hopefully, being lower in the rotation will help him keep that sort of mentality.
The fourth spot is Randy Wells to lose. He’s had some pretty good success on the mound after converting from catcher. He thinks he tried to jump to high too fast season, which lead to a poor sophomore campaign. He’s also had some pretty poor run support in his short career.
That leaves the following hurlers to fill the final spot: Carlos Silva, Jeff Samardzija, James Russell, Casey Coleman, Braden Looper, and Todd Wellemeyer.
Carlos Silva was involved in a “I’ll take your junk if you take my junk” trade with the Mariners last season, and it turned into ‘gold’ for the Cubs in comparison to what Milton Bradley has done for the M’s. If Silva doesn’t make a start this year, that trade will end up in the Cubs favor. Congrats Jim Hendry, you actually might have gotten something right for once. The change of scenery did Silva well last season by starting off the season 8-0 and an ERA in the 2′s. He slowly came down to earth and ended the season 10-6, and ended up on the DL
Jeff Samardzija is out of options and will need to make the roster, be designated for assignment, or be traded. I’m just not sure how I feel about Samardzija. He had a fantastic rookie season as a back-end bullpen pitcher in 2008. Since, he’s been up, he’s been down, he’s relieved and he’s started. Over the last two seasons, the Cubs have eaten up all his minor league options. I would have no problems with him being the fifth starter, if he’s figured out this off-season on what he’s missing. His upside is better than what Carlos Silva can bring to the table. He did pitch fairly well at the end of the season as starter going 2-1 in three starts. He had a good year at AAA going 11-3 (7-2 as a starter), but his ERA was still over 4. The Cubs could actually trade him in hopes of getting one to two young minor league players in return as well. Just figuring that’s a fifth pitcher, those stats would be more than fine. I like his chances at making the rotation.
Casey Coleman is a third generation MLB’er and found great success at the end of the season as a starter opposed to the bullpen featuring a 4-2 record with a 3.36 ERA. He’s not flashy or overpowering, but considered a finesse Greg Maddux type pitcher. That could prove to be a good change of pace in the rotation. I would imagine that he’ll begin the season in AAA as a starter and will fill in as injuries come up in the season. I like this kid a lot and I think he’s got a bright future as middle to late pitcher in the rotation.
Russell spent most of the season as the lefty reliever due to the John Grabow injury. It was a good, solid rookie campaign for him. He’s the lone left handed option for the rotation this season, so it’s planned he’ll be stretched out this spring as a starter. He’ll start the season in AAA as a starter, and will fill in as needed. I think with the number of lefties vying for bullpen spots, he’ll be an odd man out in the bullpen.
Finally, that leaves us with non-roster invitees, Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer. They both signed minor league deals, so if they don’t make the rotation, they have options at accepting a minor league assignment to add depth in case injuries occur. I don’t think either of these two pitchers will begin the season on the 25 man roster. It’s possible that Looper, with a strong spring, could find a home on a different rotation, so I’d look for him to be cut and picked up by another team if he pitches well. If he doesn’t he might be fine accepting a spot on the AAA team to build up his strength again. If this situation occurs, I’d look to him as the potential first call-up in an injury occurs in the staff. I think he’ll pitch reasonably well and find a new home by the end of spring training. Wellemeyer as originally drafted by the Cubs back in 1999. He’ll begin the season in the minors, but even in the minors, the Cubs have so many better, younger pitchers.
Andrew Cashner was originally thought to stretch out the innings this spring as a possible candidate for the rotation due to the acquisition of Kerry Wood, but with the trade of Matt Garza, I don’t think Cashner moving to the rotation even needs to be a consideration anymore. I’m aboard the Andrew Cashner train. He had two bad outings last season that ballooned his ERA where he gave up 12 earned runs in 1.1 innings. If you take out those outings, his ERA is under three. His effortless heat is something to be desired in the pen in conjunction with Wood, Marmol and Marshall, but with that said, he’s spent his short amount of time in the minors mostly as a starter, so it would be something he’s use to. With the amount of starting pitching on the roster now, his talents can help shore up one of the potentially best “end boss” bullpens in the majors.
Taking this all in, here is how I would construct the rotation:
Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Carlos Zambrano
Randy Wells
Jeff Samardzija
This leaves no left handed pitchers in the rotation, but prior to signing Ted Lilly as a free agent in 2007, There was only one season since 2000 where they had consistent LHP in the rotation for the entire season. That was in 2003 with Sean Estes, and we all know how that season ended. Rich Hill and Sean Marshall have been in and out of the rotation, but as far as a year long pitcher, Estes was about it, so I don’t think it’s necessarily as big of a deal. With Russell, Grabow, Maine and Marshall, there could be plenty of lefties coming out of the bullpen this season.
