Mashings and ramblings of a nerd
Posts tagged Matt Garza
2011 Cubs Rotation Outlook
Feb 6th
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting for work only one week from today. The Cubs have a lot of questions that need to be answered going to this season:
Can Mike Quade continue his success this season like had at the end of last season as an interm-manager?
Will players play up to their salaries (Soriano, Fukudome, Ramirez, and Zambrano, I’m loooking at you)?
Will Pena rebound hitting in Wrigley and with the help of Rudy Jaramillo?
How will the Cubs handle a rotation with all right-handed pitchers and what other options do they have?
I will be start a five-part series this week examining how I would personally build the final 25 man roster for the Cubs. These parts will include: Rotation, Bullpen, Infield, Outfield, Bench, and Minor League outlook. In my first part of the series, I’m looking at the rotation and how it should be put together to start the season.
The following starting pitchers were invited to spring training as non-roster invitees: Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer. These two pitchers are back of the rotation pitchers, which happens to be place where the biggest unanswered questions reside.
The way I see it, three of the five spots are spoken for entirely, with a fourth being a player’s to lose. The opening day starter will be newly acquired Matt Garza followed by Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano. I like Zambrano down lower in the rotation to take of any sort of pressure off of him. He ended the season strong when there was nothing left to gain for the season. Hopefully, being lower in the rotation will help him keep that sort of mentality.
The fourth spot is Randy Wells to lose. He’s had some pretty good success on the mound after converting from catcher. He thinks he tried to jump to high too fast season, which lead to a poor sophomore campaign. He’s also had some pretty poor run support in his short career.
That leaves the following hurlers to fill the final spot: Carlos Silva, Jeff Samardzija, James Russell, Casey Coleman, Braden Looper, and Todd Wellemeyer.
Carlos Silva was involved in a “I’ll take your junk if you take my junk” trade with the Mariners last season, and it turned into ‘gold’ for the Cubs in comparison to what Milton Bradley has done for the M’s. If Silva doesn’t make a start this year, that trade will end up in the Cubs favor. Congrats Jim Hendry, you actually might have gotten something right for once. The change of scenery did Silva well last season by starting off the season 8-0 and an ERA in the 2′s. He slowly came down to earth and ended the season 10-6, and ended up on the DL
Jeff Samardzija is out of options and will need to make the roster, be designated for assignment, or be traded. I’m just not sure how I feel about Samardzija. He had a fantastic rookie season as a back-end bullpen pitcher in 2008. Since, he’s been up, he’s been down, he’s relieved and he’s started. Over the last two seasons, the Cubs have eaten up all his minor league options. I would have no problems with him being the fifth starter, if he’s figured out this off-season on what he’s missing. His upside is better than what Carlos Silva can bring to the table. He did pitch fairly well at the end of the season as starter going 2-1 in three starts. He had a good year at AAA going 11-3 (7-2 as a starter), but his ERA was still over 4. The Cubs could actually trade him in hopes of getting one to two young minor league players in return as well. Just figuring that’s a fifth pitcher, those stats would be more than fine. I like his chances at making the rotation.
Casey Coleman is a third generation MLB’er and found great success at the end of the season as a starter opposed to the bullpen featuring a 4-2 record with a 3.36 ERA. He’s not flashy or overpowering, but considered a finesse Greg Maddux type pitcher. That could prove to be a good change of pace in the rotation. I would imagine that he’ll begin the season in AAA as a starter and will fill in as injuries come up in the season. I like this kid a lot and I think he’s got a bright future as middle to late pitcher in the rotation.
Russell spent most of the season as the lefty reliever due to the John Grabow injury. It was a good, solid rookie campaign for him. He’s the lone left handed option for the rotation this season, so it’s planned he’ll be stretched out this spring as a starter. He’ll start the season in AAA as a starter, and will fill in as needed. I think with the number of lefties vying for bullpen spots, he’ll be an odd man out in the bullpen.
Finally, that leaves us with non-roster invitees, Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer. They both signed minor league deals, so if they don’t make the rotation, they have options at accepting a minor league assignment to add depth in case injuries occur. I don’t think either of these two pitchers will begin the season on the 25 man roster. It’s possible that Looper, with a strong spring, could find a home on a different rotation, so I’d look for him to be cut and picked up by another team if he pitches well. If he doesn’t he might be fine accepting a spot on the AAA team to build up his strength again. If this situation occurs, I’d look to him as the potential first call-up in an injury occurs in the staff. I think he’ll pitch reasonably well and find a new home by the end of spring training. Wellemeyer as originally drafted by the Cubs back in 1999. He’ll begin the season in the minors, but even in the minors, the Cubs have so many better, younger pitchers.
Andrew Cashner was originally thought to stretch out the innings this spring as a possible candidate for the rotation due to the acquisition of Kerry Wood, but with the trade of Matt Garza, I don’t think Cashner moving to the rotation even needs to be a consideration anymore. I’m aboard the Andrew Cashner train. He had two bad outings last season that ballooned his ERA where he gave up 12 earned runs in 1.1 innings. If you take out those outings, his ERA is under three. His effortless heat is something to be desired in the pen in conjunction with Wood, Marmol and Marshall, but with that said, he’s spent his short amount of time in the minors mostly as a starter, so it would be something he’s use to. With the amount of starting pitching on the roster now, his talents can help shore up one of the potentially best “end boss” bullpens in the majors.
Taking this all in, here is how I would construct the rotation:
Matt Garza
Ryan Dempster
Carlos Zambrano
Randy Wells
Jeff Samardzija
This leaves no left handed pitchers in the rotation, but prior to signing Ted Lilly as a free agent in 2007, There was only one season since 2000 where they had consistent LHP in the rotation for the entire season. That was in 2003 with Sean Estes, and we all know how that season ended. Rich Hill and Sean Marshall have been in and out of the rotation, but as far as a year long pitcher, Estes was about it, so I don’t think it’s necessarily as big of a deal. With Russell, Grabow, Maine and Marshall, there could be plenty of lefties coming out of the bullpen this season.
Examining Cubs Past Top Draft Picks
Jan 25th
When I was browsing the Cubs official website site today, I found a listing of their draft picks from 2000 to 2010. Let’s take a look at the first rounds picks they made in those years, and any other interesting tidbits in the other rounds I came across.
2000: Luis Montanez – SS. He’s still in the minor leagues. He went from the Cubs to the Orioles in 2007. He’s been up and down a few times with the Orioles, but have never stuck He’s recently a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training again with the Cubs. I don’t see him anything besides an injury backup in the minors. Even then, I’d rather have them call up one of the kids anyway.
Dontrelle Willis was also drafted in the 8th round that year and we all know how well it worked out. Bad at first when he wins 20 games, but then he just falls of the face of the earth when he can’t throw a strike any more due to “anxiety issues”.
2001: Mark Prior – P. Most people know his story. Was drafted out of college, second overall, and was in the majors in the 2002 seasonwit pretty good success. In 2003, he’s an integral part of their playoff run to be thwarted by eventual World Series winning Marlins in the NLCS. BOOM! Injuries. He’s never the same. He’s been with the Padres and Rangers trying to mount a comeback and even pitched some independent ball last season. He’s signed a minor league contract with the Yankees this offseason, the team he was originally drafted by in 1998.
2002: Interestingly enough, they had four first round picks that year. How many of them are still playing? Zero.
Luke Hagerty – P. Had Tommy John surgery in 2003. He never made it higher than A+ ball. He was released and played some independent ball for a few seasons but not any more than a few games. From what I found trolling Facebook (obviously) he’s a trainer / baseball specialist with a company called X2Baseball in Arizona.
Matt Clanton – P. Only four innings of minor league experience due to injuries. He blames the Cubs for ruining his career and his life. As quoted from 2008 article (here): “I get drafted in the first round and things are supposed to be great, right? No way, man. Jim Hendry and his staff made my life a living hell for three years.” Yikes!
Bobby Brownlie – P. Outside of Mark Prior, this was one of the first guys I started hearing quite a bit about him around the grapevine. He spent time in the minors over seven seasons with the Cubs, Indians, and Nationals. He also had a small stint in an independent league. This past summer he went back to his alma-mater, Rutgers, to be part of their baseball coaching staff.
Chadd Blasko – P. He started off really good in the minors putting up good numbers, but that injury bug derailed those plans. He missed two complete seasons, and never pitched effectively again, after a short stint in the Orioles organization. The most recent information I can find, is that he went back to Purdue, his alma-mater, to help coach in 2008.
This was the same year that one of my all-time favorite names in baseball was drafted. His name you ask? Rocky Cherry. Was in the Majors for the Cubs the same year as Felix Pie. Before a game they were standing next to each other. Cherry Pie. Last, I saw he was in the Orioles organization (seriously the Cubs work the O’s so much!)
2003: Ryan Harvey – OF. He’s still going strong for the Rockies AA team after his 8th season as a minor leaguer.
Some joker of a dude name Tim Lincecum was draft this year and chose not to sign. He probably won’t amount to anything anyway.
Matt LaPorta, of the Cleveland Indians was drafted by the Cubs this year, but was not signed. He was later drafted by the Brewers and was a former top Prospect involved in the C.C. Sabathia that sent him to Milwaukee.
0-2 on future top players!
2004: The Cubs didn’t actually have a 1st round draft pick this season.
2005: Mark Pawelek – P. He never really got higher than A ball, and eventually released. He was picked up by the Reds in 2009, but last pitched in 2010 in an independent league.
2006: Tyler Colvin – OF. Currently with the Major League team. He had a great rookie campaign; he would have be involved in more Rookie of the Year talks, but the National League was stacked with good rookies last year.
2007: Josh Vitters – 3B. Currently on the AA roster. Still to be considered one of their top prospects and the current heir to Aramis Ramirez’s throne when he leaves the team. He’s still working on things, but he’s still young (21).
Andrew Cashner was originally drafted this year, but he chose not to sign, which brings me to…
2008: Andrew Cashner – P. Currently with the Major League team. With the exception of two bad outings, Cashner had a fantastic year out of the bullpen helping Sean Marshall setup. This year he’s got Kerry Wood helping him out. Prior to the Matt Garza trade, there was talk about moving him to the rotation. I like this kid a lot. He’s got heat, and it seems pretty effortless from him.
2009: Brett Jackson – OF. Currently on the AA roster. He’s on a fast-track to the majors; he just needs some room to play. He was part of the Futures team this past season. If his power fully develops he could be a 5-tool player. There’s still a lot excitement with him. I’m sure he’ll replace Marlon Byrd in a few seasons, unless Colvin fully converts to a first basemen.
2010: Hayden Simpson – P. He doesn’t have any MiLB experience as of yet. He was pretty surprising first round pick due to the fact he was projected to be a 6th round pick. Last time Tim Wilkins did this, he grabbed a kid named Tyler Colvin, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt right now. He put up good numbers in two seasons with Southern Arkansas.
Cubs Trade for Matt Garza
Jan 8th
The Cubs made a big move Friday to shore up their rotation for this season. They made a trade for pitcher Matt Garza of the Tampa Rays and two minor league players and the Rays will acquire 5 players.
Here’s a quick rundown of players that are involved in the deal.
Cubs receive:
Matt Garza. He was 15-10 last season with a 3.91 ERA and topped 200 innings for the season. He also threw a no-hitter versus the Detroit Tigers this past season. There’s been quite a bit of talk that he’s going to hop right into the rotation as the ace of the team. I’m not sure if that will actually happen though, but it doesn’t, he’ll easily start after Dempster and before Carlos Zambrano. I like Zambrano not being the opening day starter as his track record has not been good. Simply put, he’s not an ace, but as a 3rd starteer in the rotation, he could thrive.
Fernando Perez. Perez was up and down for the Rays in the 2008 and 2009 seasons. At the age of 27, he’s starting to hit that age where he needs to make a big jump in his career or fall in to that grouping of people that just never made it. He’s not particularly a strong hitter, but he’s got extremely good speed.
Zachary Rosscup. He’s currently a low A ball pitcher that’s only 22 that was drafted two seasons ago that tosses the ball from the left side. I don’t know much about him. He seemed to have a pretty decent 2nd full season
Rays receive:
Chris Archer. He was acquired in Mark DeRosa trade to the Indians a few seasons ago. Since then Archer has become the Cubs top pitching prospect and was their pitcher of the year in the Minors last season posting a 15-3 record with a 2.34 ERA between high A and AA last season. He’s only 21 now too. There was an outside shot he could have made the Cubs rotation out of spring training, but most likely he’ll start the season in AAA. He could develop into a top end rotation guy. The ceiling is pretty high for this kid. Although he is considered the top pitching prospect, with the likes Casey Coleman, Trey McNutt, Chris Carpenter (no no that Chris Carpenter), and potentially Jay Jackson, he can me moved to improve the team now.
Brandon Guyer. He was the Cubs minor league hitter of the year this past season. He hit .344 with 13 hrs 58 rbis and 30 steals. He’s played all three outfield positions this season, and it seems like he plays them reasonably with only three errors and 12 assists. Mumblings on the blog circuit seem to say that Guyer is only ever going to amount to a 4th OF at most. Seems to me with those sort of stats he could fit in pretty well as a 2nd hitter in a line up with quite a bit success. He could easily amount to a 20 hr guy with 50 sb in a full major league season; however, Brett Jackson is currently the OF of the Cubs future. With Colvin and Soriano on the team, with presumably Jackson filling in in a year or two, he’s expendable.
Hak-Ju Lee. The 20 year old shortstop from Korean is blocked by fellow youngster Starlin Castro. He’s a plus defender, and hit for a pretty good average, and has pretty decent speed. He could easily fit in as an Adam Everett type player, where he’s really good on the field, but most likely an 8th hitter or so. Depending on what the Rays do with Reid Brignac over the next two or three years, Lee could easily fill in that spot.
Robinson Chirinos. Former infielder Chirinos was moved to catcher in the 2008 season, but last season was his first time as a full time catcher. He hits the ball really well as he hit .326 with 18 hrs. The other interesting fact he struck out 43 times; however he walked 44 times in 380 abs between AA and AAA. He could easily be Jaso’s backup this season or next. He should be a pretty good player of the bench, but he probably won’t ever be an everyday starter, but a solid backup.
Sam Fuld. He’s a been a player that’s been up and down filling in for injuries and what not over the past several seasons. He’s a great defender and plays the game the right way, and plays hard every play, much like Marlon Byrd. He doesn’t have much power, but hits for a good average and hits the gaps pretty well. He’s got great speed and is a smart base runner. He often was a pinch runner late in games, and stayed in as defensive replacement. With Carl Crawford out of town, he’s got a solid shot at making the team as a 4th or 5th outfielder on the team, whereas he’d probably stay in the minors with the Cubs this season.
This trade will actually help both teams. For now, it obviously favors the Cubs since Garza is hitting his prime pitching years, and they will retain him for three seasons (including this one). Picking up prospects are such a gamble, but even if one of those players pane out, in the end the trade will wind up in the Rays favor. I’m fairly certain Chris Archer is going to end up in the majors, and contributing to a team. Garza has been getting better and better as his career grows, so hopefully he can continue that sort of success in Wrigley.
